China Paper Association: "The 14th Five-Year Plan and Medium- and Long-Term High-Quality Development Outline for the Paper Industry

The world today is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. International economic and trade rules and the global governance system are being restructured at an accelerated pace, and instability in the international political landscape is on the rise. Only by persistently promoting high-quality development of the industry in all respects, turning passivity into initiative, and turning difficulties and challenges into opportunities can we further enhance the overall competitiveness of China's paper industry and firmly seize the initiative - independently controllable, safe and efficient - in responding to these changes unseen in a century.

In the new era, the defining feature of China's economic development is the shift from quantity-oriented development to high-quality development that meets the people's ever-growing needs for a better life. We should take supply-side structural reform as the main line, avoid blind expansion, enrich the substance of development, consciously shift from a production-oriented model to one integrating production, technology and services, and improve development quality and economic returns. We should accelerate the pace of adjustment, focus on resolving unbalanced and inadequate development in the industry, tackle the three major bottlenecks of resources, environment and structure, safeguard and enhance the security of the industrial chain, transform growth drivers, and lead high-quality development with innovation, so as to achieve development at a higher level, with a better structure, higher efficiency, greater fairness and greater sustainability.

The paper industry is an important basic raw material industry closely tied to the national economy and social development and characterized by sustainable development. It also features renewable raw materials, recyclable products, self-generated biomass energy and recyclable chemicals for main production use, and enjoys a uniquely natural green attribute. The paper industry comprises three major parts: pulp manufacturing, papermaking (including machine-made paper and paperboard, handmade paper and converted paper) and paper products manufacturing. Paper consumption is directly or indirectly affected by all sectors of society and is closely linked to national economic security; the consumption level of paper and paperboard is an important indicator of a country's economy and level of civilization.

In light of the national "dual circulation" strategy, the goal of reaching the per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, and the development experience of developed countries, China's future market demand for paper will still see considerable growth. Therefore, this outline upgrades the overall development goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan period and beyond to align with the 2035 long-term vision and the 2060 carbon neutrality goal, positioning its own competitive advantages, scientifically formulating the industry's lines, principles, policies and strategies, and making sound medium- and long-term plans to build a low-carbon, environmentally friendly and sustainable green paper industry.

II. Guiding Ideology

Guided by a series of important speeches by Comrade Xi Jinping, we should strengthen confidence, lift our spirits, earnestly change our development approach, transform the development model, seize the initiative, improve development quality and economic returns, strengthen the momentum of innovation-driven growth, and promote green, low-carbon and circular development. We should accelerate structural adjustment and gradually form a new pattern featuring a rational layout, raw materials suited to national conditions, products that meet domestic demand, and a high degree of industry concentration; comprehensively raise the quality of the industry, safeguard market fairness, promote industrial upgrading, help realize the people's aspiration for a better life, drive China's paper industry to a new level, and strive to fully achieve the strategic goal of becoming a papermaking powerhouse.

Accelerating structural adjustment: We should adhere to the direction of supply-side structural reform, improve the quality of supply, focus on resolving the raw material bottleneck and shore up weak links; accelerate industrial restructuring and the development of raw material bases to make the regional layout and product mix more rational; and promote coordinated development along the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, laying a solid foundation for the high-quality development of the paper industry and the building of a new industrial development pattern.

Improving development quality: After more than four decades of rapid development, products have basically met domestic demand. As China's economic development level rises, society's requirements for product quality and service quality are increasingly higher, so we still need to change our development mindset, shift from quantity-led to quality-and-benefit-oriented growth, and strengthen the industry's competitive advantages.

Advancing industrial upgrading: The stage of large-scale industrial expansion has basically ended, and we must shift from scale expansion to structural upgrading. We need to focus on optimizing the structure of raw materials, products and enterprises, enhance the value of the industrial chain, move from pure manufacturing to the high value-added segment integrating production, technology and services, and advance the upgrading of the industrial structure.

Adhering to innovation-driven development: We should shift from "factor-driven" to "innovation-driven" growth. Relying on large-scale, high-intensity input of production factors is no longer sustainable. The main drivers of future development have shifted to technological innovation, technical services and competition for talent; we should improve our innovation capacity and drive industrial development with technological advantages.

Promoting green development: In the stage of high-quality development, the people have a stronger need for a better life and a beautiful ecological environment and set higher requirements for the provision of more quality ecological products. The industry must treat green and low-carbon development as an intrinsic requirement of high-quality development.

Safeguarding fair competition: We should strengthen industry self-discipline and social responsibility, build a scientific, complete and effective standards system, improve the market environment for fair competition, and modernize the industry's governance system and governance capacity.

III. Issues That Urgently Need to Be Solved

High-quality development requires a high-quality talent pool, and the shortage of talent in the industry will constrain its high-quality development. Therefore, we should accelerate the training and building of high-caliber, cross-disciplinary, multi-level teams of professional technical and business management personnel as well as a professional industrial workforce. We should promote modern corporate development concepts and modern enterprise systems, improve enterprises' production, operation and decision-making management, fully connect with the R&D and design services of upstream and downstream industries, and pursue sustainable corporate development to meet the needs of high-quality development.

The potential space for economic growth supported by factors such as resources, energy and the environment has declined significantly. Growth driven purely by scale expansion is no longer sustainable. The industry faces problems including structural and phased overcapacity in some products, severe product homogenization, a lack of differentiation and functionalization capabilities, a steadily rising dependence on imported raw materials, weak technological innovation capacity, too many small and medium-sized enterprises, low resource utilization efficiency, and environmental governance capacity that still needs improvement.

With the implementation of the ban on waste paper imports and the establishment of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, the industry faces multiple challenges, including raw material structure adjustment, energy structure transformation, technology development and the exploration of future technological breakthroughs, as well as problems such as a possible decline in the independent and controllable capacity of the industrial chain and supply chain caused by raw material shortages.

In an environment where policies on raw materials, environmental protection, energy, investment and financing are continuously tightening, the industry's natural green attributes have not been fully reflected. It is necessary to give full play to the industry's green advantages in the course of development and strive to gain broad recognition from society as a whole. At the same time, we should accelerate the increase of the share of biomass energy used in the industry and achieve breakthroughs in energy use transformation as well as in theory and technology as early as possible to support further energy saving, carbon reduction and carbon neutrality; otherwise, the industry may have to reduce carbon emissions by relying on policy measures that constrain the development of industrial capacity.

IV. Development Goals

(I) Adjusting the Raw Material Structure

The contradiction between raw material supply and demand is prominent, and external dependence on wood chips, pulp and paper will continue to rise year by year. While making full use of overseas pulp and forest resources to achieve complementary advantages across the forestry-paper industrial chain, we need to focus on adjusting the raw material structure. The construction of forestry-paper integration projects will become a continuous and long-term task; it is the future direction of the industry and an important measure for promoting the sustainable development of the paper industry. We should continue to improve the policy of "promoting paper with forestry, sustaining forestry with paper, and developing forestry and paper together", advance forestry-paper integration, increase the area of domestic raw material forests for papermaking, and enhance the domestic supply capacity of wood fiber raw materials.

We should shore up weak links in the industrial chain and supply chain, continue to make full use of limited resources, and increase the utilization of wastes such as the "three residues" of forestry, waste bagasse from the sugar industry, agricultural straw, wetland reeds and recovered waste paper. This will reduce the risk of excessive external dependence on papermaking fiber raw materials and safeguard industrial security.

1. Appropriately plan chemical and semi-chemical pulp forestry-paper integration enterprises along the southeast coast to offset resource losses in waste paper recycling;
2. Accelerate the development of self-owned forestland, raise the resource self-sufficiency rate, and accumulate carbon sinks and biomass resources;
3. Recover domestic waste paper through multiple channels and recycle paper packaging overseas for pulping, so as to maintain the domestic supply of raw materials;
4. Develop bamboo pulp and encourage the construction of forest road infrastructure, and make scientific use of bagasse, straw and other non-wood raw materials;
5. Carry out international cooperation to develop and build overseas industrial forest bases.

(II) Optimizing the Enterprise Structure

We should seek a more rational industrial layout nationwide and emphasize communication, exchange and collaborative extension among upstream and downstream industries. We should optimize the regional industrial chain layout, encourage enterprise mergers and reorganization, prevent low-level redundant construction, improve the level of enterprise operation and management, implement the modern enterprise system, and grow stronger and larger to form a number of large enterprise groups.

1. Specialized division of labor among large, medium and small enterprises: Guide the production of bulk products toward specialization and scale, guide small and medium-sized paper enterprises to develop in the direction of specialization, refinement, distinctive features and innovation, implement horizontal alliances, and improve the level of specialization and risk resistance.
2. Increasing capacity concentration: Guide large pulp and paper enterprises to develop through mergers and reorganization, joint ventures and cooperation, and form comprehensive pulp and paper enterprise groups with international competitiveness. Cultivate leading paper products enterprises, raise the concentration of paper products enterprises, and improve economies of scale.
3. Proactively phasing out outdated capacity: Shut down production facilities that fail to meet emission standards, whose energy consumption level is relatively backward, or whose products are weakly competitive, and ensure that closed outdated capacity or production facilities are not put back into operation. Carry out continuous technological transformation and continuous optimization and upgrading of capacity to keep the technical level and competitiveness of capacity at the international advanced level.

(III) Persisting in Energy Saving and Emission Reduction

1. Energy saving targets

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the paper industry should increase investment in energy-saving retrofits, give full play to the role of cogeneration, make full use of energy such as residual pressure and residual heat generated in production processes, increase the recovery and utilization of organic waste liquor, organic waste and biomass gas, achieve near-zero discharge of solid waste, and maximize resource recovery.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we strive to reduce the actual comprehensive process energy consumption per unit of product (purchased and self-generated energy combined) from 350kgce/t to 320kgce/t for pulp and from 480kgce/t to 450 kgce/t for paper and paperboard, reaching the relatively advanced international level.

Given that China's per capita paper consumption will continue to rise before the national economy reaches the level of a moderately developed country, and in view of the carbon peak goal and the implementation of the ban on waste paper imports, the industry's total energy consumption will still continue to rise before 2030. After 2030, we will strive for technological breakthroughs in the industry's energy use and build up theoretical and technical reserves for alternative energy to substantially replace fossil energy, so as to avoid a sharp jump in the industry's overall comprehensive energy consumption caused by the reduced effectiveness of cogeneration as fossil energy is cut back. We will strive to ensure that carbon emissions decline gradually after the peak through measures such as expanding afforestation, increasing the share of biomass energy, energy-saving technological transformation, improving cogeneration efficiency, phasing out relatively backward capacity, moderately controlling new capacity and increasing imports of finished paper.

1. Pollutant emission reduction

We should consolidate the results of emission reduction, maintain a low level of pollutant emissions, and increase the comprehensive utilization of solid waste and the energy utilization of biomass in solid, liquid and gaseous waste. We should strengthen the collection and treatment of fugitive pollutants and improve the automation and operational management of environmental protection facilities. We should discharge pollutants with a permit, apply for a pollutant discharge permit in accordance with laws and regulations, and conduct self-monitoring. We should discharge in good faith in accordance with the law, submit execution reports on time and disclose information promptly. We should maintain the pollutant discharge volume per unit of product at the international advanced level.

(IV) Improving Quality and Variety

We should adhere to the goal of meeting the people's ever-growing needs for a better life and adapt to the demand of downstream industries and society for personalized, differentiated and high-quality products.

Through innovation in process technology and equipment and technological transformation, we should raise the level of production equipment, processing and design, and process artistry in pulp, paper and paper products manufacturing, promote industrial upgrading through lean production, and enhance the industry's status and image.

We should take the initiative in leading the demand of a diversified consumer market and form a product structure featuring high-end, refined, distinctive, differentiated and personalized products. We should increase the variety of paper and paper products according to users' actual technical needs, improve product quality, cultivate more paper brands, enhance brand influence and competitiveness, and shift product services toward targeted customization and one-on-one services. We should segment product categories and increase the supply and variety of domestic technical paper for industry and agriculture, paper for science, technology and national defense, and the pulp used for them.

(V) Clarifying Phased Goals

In accordance with the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035, the goal of "per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries" by 2035 and the goal of doubling total economic output or per capita income by 2035, and based on an analysis of the relationship between the attributes, status and role of the paper industry and economic development as well as the paper consumption capacity of moderately developed and above countries worldwide, China's paper consumption trend is simulated under three scenarios of active, normal and negative economic growth. It is estimated that by 2035 domestic demand for paper and paperboard may reach 190 million tonnes, 170 million tonnes and 140 million tonnes respectively. If the national carbon peak goal for 2030 is also taken into account, the growth of paper and paperboard capacity may be forced to be restrained; therefore, domestic production of paper and paperboard in 2035 should be controlled within 170 million tonnes, with an average annual growth of about 2.5%.

Development goals for 2025

1. National total output of paper and paperboard to reach 140 million tonnes (annual per capita consumption to reach 100 kg);
2. Virgin pulp output of 30 million tonnes;
3. Paper products output of 90 million tonnes;
4. Pulp consumption, energy consumption, water consumption and pollutant discharge per unit of product to remain at the international advanced level;
5. Continued adjustment of the product structure, continuous improvement of product quality and steadily enriched variety.

Development goals for 2035

1. National total output of paper and paperboard to reach 170 million tonnes (annual per capita consumption to reach over 120 kg);
2. The proportion of virgin pulp to be above 30%;
3. Paper products output of 120 million tonnes;
4. Strive for biomass energy to account for more than 35% of energy consumption;
5. The proportion of cogeneration to reach above 90%;
6. Pulp consumption, water consumption, energy consumption and pollutant discharge per unit of product to reach the internationally leading level.

V. Consolidating the Industry Foundation

(I) Emphasizing the Talent Strategy

Talent is fundamental to the industry's high-quality development. We should give full play to the role of talent as the primary resource and implement the principle of respecting labor, knowledge, talent, intellectual property rights and creation.

We should effectively strengthen technological innovation and management innovation and cultivate new competitive advantages for the paper industry through innovation. We should pay attention to the talent bottleneck in development and train a skilled and professional industrial workforce. We should work to attract high-caliber, multidisciplinary and international talent in short supply, and bring in cross-industry, cross-disciplinary, internationally oriented high-end scientific and technological talent, management talent and marketing talent.

We should train talent in practical work, bring in and make good use of talent, and cultivate and build in all respects a talent pool with fine qualities, complete categories and a basically rational structure, fostering a reserve force of young scientific and technological talent to meet the demand of modern pulp and paper enterprises for high-level talent.

(II) Persisting in Scientific and Technological Progress

Scientific and technological progress is the foundation of high-quality development. We should improve technological innovation capacity, increase investment in theoretical and process technology R&D, form a scientific and technological innovation system with enterprises as the main body and combining industry, academia, research and application, and promote the concentration of various innovation factors in enterprises.

We should strengthen the independent innovation capacity of paper equipment manufacturing enterprises. We should increase R&D efforts on new-generation technical equipment for pulp, paper and paper products, raise the level of independent technology and equipment, and strive for the technological level and equipment manufacturing capability of key backbone paper equipment manufacturers to approach the international advanced level.

We should leverage the properties of pulp and paper to carry out research on products in multiple directions and develop technologies and products with independent intellectual property rights. We should focus on theoretical and technical research related to carbon neutrality, seek breakthroughs in key technologies, and promote the sustained and steady development of the paper industry.

(III) Fulfilling Social Responsibility

We should raise awareness of social responsibility in all respects and take the initiative to shoulder social responsibility. We should protect the rights and interests of employees, carry forward traditional papermaking culture, actively participate in public welfare causes to benefit society, promote the development of education and social undertakings, and improve the industry's social image.

In the paper industry, awareness of energy conservation and environmental protection should shift from being compelled to being voluntary, from passive to active, and from "being asked to do it" to "wanting to do it". We should publicize the natural green attributes of paper to the public, consciously maintain the industry's good green and low-carbon social image, and create new space for development. We should continue to follow the concept that "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets" and fully integrate the entire papermaking cycle into a more scientific and rational social circular economy system.

(IV) Safeguarding Fair Competition

Strengthening industry self-discipline is an important condition for the industry's high-quality development. We should jointly uphold and implement the industry self-discipline convention, safeguard industry integrity and market fairness, and continuously improve the market environment for fair competition in the industry. We should prevent unfair competition and acts that harm the industry's development and interests.

We should improve the industry's capacity and market notification and early-warning mechanisms, make full use of the futures market platform, and promptly compile and release information such as the industry's production and sales situation, capacity construction, industry development trends and product volume and price indices. In conjunction with the early-warning mechanisms for certain product categories already established in the industry, we should promptly notify the industry of development conditions and provide timely prompts on switching production or adjusting structure for products that are in oversupply or whose markets are shrinking, so as to avoid blind, disorderly development and vicious competition in the industry.

VI. Achieving High-Quality Development

The growing contradiction between the people's ever-growing needs for a better life and unbalanced, inadequate development has become increasingly prominent, pointing the way for the sustainable development of the paper industry and providing broad space for its future growth. The industry's achievement of high-quality development and its transition from a large papermaking country to a papermaking powerhouse will be reflected in the following aspects:

(I) The Leap from Production-Oriented to Service-Oriented

With a focus on strengthening services, we should enhance enterprises' consulting and service capabilities for users. We should integrate upstream and downstream industries and technologies, extend the industrial chain, build professional user service teams, and provide targeted production and services for users, upgrading from a mere producer to a supplier of production, technology and services.

We should take the initiative to design and develop products according to customer needs and carry out research and development on multi-directional applications of pulp and paper. We should develop products segmented by user and application to meet high-quality, multi-faceted, diversified, personalized and multi-level needs.

With a focus on innovative development, we should strengthen enterprises' leading role in technological innovation and innovate across the board in markets, product quality and variety, technical equipment, business philosophy and service levels.

We should give play to the industry's advantages in scale, supporting facilities and first-mover status in some fields, promote the high-end, intelligent and green transformation of traditional industries, and develop service-oriented manufacturing.

We should advance the application of the internet and vigorously promote Internet Plus design, production, sales and logistics in the paper products industry. We should innovate the production design and marketing models of end products such as paper packaging, notebooks, reprographic printing products and household paper, providing society with more and more flexible product choices and more convenient and faster services.

(II) Meeting Social and Livelihood Needs

When China's per capita GDP reaches the level of moderately developed countries, per capita paper consumption will also reach that level in tandem. To further meet social and livelihood needs, we should, through supply-side structural reform, continuously develop richer varieties and more professionally segmented products, expand application fields, increase the technological content of products, reduce redundant functions, cultivate new types of consumption and carry forward national culture.

We should meet the technical needs of downstream industries through the application of interdisciplinary technologies in products. We should improve and optimize the quality of products such as printing and writing paper, household paper, packaging paper and paperboard, specialty paper and paperboard, and paper products, so as to adapt to the demands of a diversified and personalized consumer market.

(III) All-Round Sustainable Development

Anchored to the 2035 long-term vision, and in order to achieve the goals set out in the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035, including the specific requirement to "accelerate the transformation and upgrading of enterprises in key industries such as chemicals and papermaking and improve the green manufacturing system", we should comprehensively improve resource utilization efficiency, achieve a steady decline in carbon emissions after the carbon peak in 2030, and build a healthy, low-carbon industrial value chain.

We should make scientific use of resources from both domestic and international channels. By using high-quality fiber resources from abroad to improve the quality of pulp made from domestically recovered waste paper, advancing the construction of domestic forestry-paper integration projects and making scientific use of non-wood raw materials, we should gradually increase the domestic supply of fiber raw materials and safeguard social supply and the industry's sustainable development.

We should transform the development model and, in accordance with the principles of reduction, reuse and resource recovery, improve the utilization efficiency of water, energy, land and plant raw materials and reduce energy consumption and pollutant emissions. We should raise the level of technical equipment; actively publicize the industry's good image of being recyclable, renewable and sustainably developing; create green factories and guide green consumption; and rely on innovation to drive upgrading, quality improvement and efficiency gains, cultivating new growth points and new competitive advantages.

To achieve a green paper industry, we should take building a resource-conserving and environmentally friendly industry as our goal and remain committed to developing low-carbon green products. By confronting and making full use of the challenges and opportunities of the new era, we should develop the paper industry into a complete circular economy development system with recyclable resources, low energy consumption and low emissions that connects with the carbon cycle of nature.

——This article is reprinted from China Packaging Network (pack.cn). Original link: http://news.pack.cn/show-378823.html