[Безумие] Четвёртое повышение на 200, совокупный рост стоимости упаковочной бумаги достиг 1 200 юаней/тонну?! Осторожно с дальнейшей динамикой

Following Nine Dragons' third price increase last week, when the market basically completed the third round of price rises, a paper mill in Zhejiang officially fired the first shot of the fourth round this week. Small mills then followed suit one after another, with cumulative increases exceeding 1,200 yuan, and panic continued to spread across the entire industry. According to Zhuochuang paper statistics, corrugated paper prices have now broken through 4,300 yuan/tonne and linerboard has broken 5,300 yuan/tonne, and short-term paper prices still have upward momentum. The short-term market remains frenzied, but the market will eventually return to reason, and the industry is reminded to treat the future trend with caution.

1. Zhejiang fires the first shot of the fourth round of price hikes, with cumulative increases exceeding 1,200 yuan

Last week Nine Dragons raised prices for the third time, and the market basically completed the third round of price increases.

But at present, paper mills and board plants are constrained by various reasons, capacity has still not been released, and the operating rate is less than 50%, leaving base paper and paperboard extremely scarce in the market; carton plants have nowhere to turn for paper and even voluntarily accept price increases and make advance payments, the base paper of large mills has nearly been swept clean, and waste paper arrivals are only about 50% of the normal purchasing volume.

Left with no choice, a leading local paper mill in Zhejiang officially announced on the evening of March 2 another increase of 150-200 yuan, bringing the cumulative increase since the holiday to 700-750 yuan. It fired the first shot of the fourth round of price hikes! Small mills then followed suit one after another, with cumulative increases exceeding 1,200 yuan, and panic continued to spread across the entire industry.

1. Cumulative increases since the holiday will reach as high as 40%, and paperboard may even remain hard to obtain

Based on the current situation of base paper price increases, it is predicted that starting from March 3, most board plants will launch a fourth round of price hikes, with an increase of about 10%! Since the holiday, cumulative increases will reach as high as 40%, and paperboard may even remain hard to obtain.

1. Corrugated paper has broken 4,300 yuan/tonne and linerboard has broken 5,300 yuan/tonne? Short-term paper prices still have upward momentum

On March 2, prices in the corrugated paper market were mainly stable, with quotations in some regions continuing to rise. The number of paper enterprises starting up gradually increased, but limited by insufficient raw material supply, most production lines have not yet reached full-load production. Downstream demand is gradually recovering and current purchasing enthusiasm is fair, yet the supply-demand pattern in the corrugated paper market remains tight.

The linerboard market shows no obvious change for the time being; quotations from large-scale paper enterprises are stable, while small and medium-sized paper enterprises mainly wait and see. Industry operating rates tend to increase, and paper enterprises in many regions will resume production early this month, but limited by raw material supply, the overall operating load is unlikely to improve significantly.

Brief on the upstream market

Waste yellow board paper:

On March 2, the delivered price of domestic waste yellow board paper was mostly stable, with some paper mills making catch-up increases and a few lowering prices. As transportation recovery accelerated, arrivals at paper mills increased somewhat, and the short-term momentum for further waste paper price increases weakened. At present, arrivals vary among paper mills, and most mills mainly intend to wait and see how arrivals change. Zhuochuang expects the delivered price of domestic waste yellow board paper to be temporarily stable tomorrow, with local adjustments possible.

On March 2, trading in the imported wood pulp spot market was relatively light, and traders' enthusiasm for offering quotes was low. Paper mills in Hebei started up one after another, but operating loads were limited; paper mills are consuming earlier raw material inventories, and their enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is low. Local traders have no clear offers for the time being; before the Chinese New Year, the tax-inclusive price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,450 yuan/tonne, and the tax-inclusive price of hardwood pulp was 3,750-3,800 yuan/tonne.

At present, the corrugated and linerboard paper markets mainly continue a steady-to-upward trend; favorable factors still dominate the market, and Zhuochuang expects that short-term paper prices still have upward momentum.

1. The short-term market remains frenzied, but the market will eventually return to reason, and the future trend must be treated with caution

According to China Securities Journal, prices of corrugated paper and linerboard have recently shown an upward trend. On February 28, the bases of large-scale paper enterprises raised prices again by 100-200 yuan/tonne. Zhuochuang statistics show that the ex-works tax-inclusive cash quotation for 120g high-strength corrugated paper in some regions has broken through the 4,000 yuan/tonne mark, up 600-800 yuan/tonne from the mainstream pre-holiday quotation of 3,300-3,400 yuan/tonne, an increase of 17.65%-24.24%.

Shortage of raw material supply:

From the price adjustment letters and customer notices issued by paper enterprises recently, it is not hard to find that phrases such as tight raw material supply and rising costs appear frequently. Industry insiders say the pandemic has affected the waste paper collection process, the waste paper market is short of supply and raw materials are in tight supply, which is the main driver of the recent price surge in corrugated paper and linerboard. Zhuochuang monitoring data show that as of February 28, the average daily price of domestic waste yellow board paper was 2,415 yuan/tonne, up 13.86% from the beginning of the month.

It is difficult for employees to return to their posts on time, making the resumption of work less than ideal and affecting raw material production capacity. Paper enterprises are operating at low loads, and some have announced a suspension of orders or limited order intake. Paper enterprises generally need at least about 3 days of raw material inventory to start up, but current arrivals are hard to guarantee.

On the demand side, the express delivery and logistics industries are resuming operations one after another, and demand for packaging paper from e-commerce and other industries is gradually recovering. At the same time, some board and carton plants have begun to restock. According to news from the Jiangsu Provincial Postal Administration on February 25, all branded delivery enterprises in Jiangsu have resumed production, and average daily collection and delivery volumes have gradually climbed to more than 90% of the business volume in the same period last year.

Longzhong Information said on February 28 that with waste paper raw materials in short supply and downstream demand continuing to recover, corrugated and linerboard paper prices are expected to have fairly strong upward momentum in the short term, with room for increases of 200-300 yuan/tonne.

Treat the later trend with caution:

Zhuochuang Information analyst Jin Peipei

believes that a cautious attitude is still needed toward the later trend. Entering March, major paper enterprises will resume work one after another, and market supply will gradually return to normal. In addition,

Nine Dragons Paper will put into operation a total of 1.1 million tonnes per year of linerboard capacity at its Dongguan base and Yongxin base respectively in the first quarter, which may cause a considerable impact on the market.

There is still room for downstream demand to improve, but the end-market performance is not optimistic. Paper prices in March may run at a high level,

but market supply and demand will eventually return to reason, and the downside risk for prices in the second quarter may increase.

believes that the main challenges facing the paper industry in 2020 remain unresolved, including deteriorating supply-demand dynamics and declining competitiveness compared with overseas papermakers.

points out that the raw material structure of the paper industry is diverging, and the cost advantage of leading paper enterprises continues to stand out. The divergence in raw material structure leads to a divergence in corporate profitability. As the price gap between domestic waste paper and imported waste paper has widened again, enterprises with higher imported waste paper quotas have a clear cost advantage over those using only domestic waste paper; with imported waste paper declining year by year in 2020-2021, the raw material cost advantage of leading paper enterprises is expected to be reflected through overseas waste paper pulp and overseas finished paper projects. If raw material prices rise in the next 1-2 years, the cost advantage of leading enterprises will become even more prominent.

——This article is reprinted from China Packaging Network (pack.cn). Original link: http://news.pack.cn/show-354675.html