Пик сезона спроса во втором полугодии: насколько прибыльна гофроиндустрия?

This year's Mid-Autumn Festival falls on September 21. Downstream packaging plants stock up at least about two months in advance, and late July to August is the peak season for Mid-Autumn orders. Since early August, the price increase of corrugated paper has widened further. So what is the profit level of the corrugated paper industry?

1. Corrugated paper price trend analysis

2019-2021 corrugated paper price trend chart

From January to August, corrugated paper prices showed a "V"-shaped trend. From January to August (as of August 19), the national average price of corrugated paper was 3,952 yuan/tonne, up 601 yuan/tonne from 3,351 yuan/tonne in the same period last year, an increase of 17.94%. Since late May, the mainstream price in the corrugated paper market has maintained an upward trend, and the increase widened further in early August. The main reasons are that base paper inventories at downstream processing enterprises are at a low-to-medium level, and paper prices rose as the Mid-Autumn Festival approached. Influenced by the psychology of "buying on rising prices rather than falling ones", downstream packaging enterprises became more active in building inventories, and the market trading atmosphere improved somewhat.

1. Impact of unexpected events and force majeure factors on the market in 2021

Impact of unexpected events in 2021 on the supply side of corrugated paper

Unexpected events occurred frequently in 2021. First, power rationing in the industry affected the normal operation of corrugated paper enterprises; second, under the "coal-to-gas" policy, 9 enterprises in the Dongguan area shut down and halted production, and as of now 7 small and medium-sized enterprises in Dongguan are still shut down; third, affected by typhoons and rainstorms, production enterprises in Henan, Zhejiang, Hubei and other places operated unstably, and in particular the waterlogging and flood disaster in Henan from July 17 to 22 had a great impact on local production enterprises; fourth, public health incidents occurred in many regions, and production and shipments in Jiangsu, Henan, Hubei and other places were restricted. From January to August, the average operating rate of corrugated paper was 55.65%, and in mid-August the operating rate dropped to 50.4%, down 16.45 percentage points from the peak of 66.85% in late January. From July to August, the supply side of corrugated paper continued to tighten.

1. How much profit is there in the corrugated paper industry

Corrugated paper industry profit trend chart

From January to August, the average gross profit margin of corrugated paper was 12.31%, up 1.7 percentage points from 10.61% in the same period last year. The main reason is that after the ban on imports of foreign waste paper this year, domestic waste paper supply remained tight, so waste paper prices generally rose in the first half of the year. From January to August, the average price of waste yellow board paper was 2,397 yuan/tonne, up 386 yuan/tonne from 2,011 yuan/tonne in the same period last year, an increase of 19.19%. Raw material costs supported corrugated paper prices at a high level, and coupled with a sharp drop in the growth rate of corrugated paper imports this year, corrugated paper prices also showed a stable trend with slight upward movement amid an overall tightening of supply. From January to August, the national average price of corrugated paper was 3,952 yuan/tonne, up 601 yuan/tonne from 3,351 yuan/tonne in the same period last year, an increase of 17.94%. From May to August, downstream demand for corrugated paper was generally weak, and the extent of price increases was limited, so the gross profit margin only grew slightly.

——This article is reprinted from China Packaging Network (pack.cn). Original link: http://news.pack.cn/show-378044.html