Как двойные ограничения, двойной контроль и двойные углеродные цели повлияют на отрасль печати?

As the dual carbon goals advance, it is expected that enforcement of the dual control of energy consumption will become stronger in the future. Even if the dual restrictions have phased characteristics, the conditions for enterprises' energy use will also become tighter.

Golden September and Silver October are traditionally the peak production season for printing enterprises. But this year the situation is very different: printing enterprises in many places have been hit by power rationing and production curbs.

About Power Rationing and Production Curbs

Since mid-September, power rationing has appeared in many provinces across the country. According to our understanding of the situation of printing enterprises, some have power limited for 2 days a week, some 3 days, some even 6 days - the situations vary. The general trend was that restrictions grew increasingly severe from mid to late September, and the situation eased somewhat after October.

Policies on power rationing and production curbs differ in intensity across regions. The measures adopted, in order, include off-peak production and orderly electricity use, and in some areas, such as certain cities in Northeast China, there were even extreme cases of abrupt power cuts for short periods.

One important reason for the appearance of orderly electricity use and even abrupt power cuts is that power shortages have spread across the country, and the power shortage is caused by a mismatch between supply and demand.

From the demand side, as the domestic economy continues to recover, electricity demand and load in many places have maintained rapid growth; from the supply side, coal shortages and soaring coal prices have greatly increased the cost pressure on power plants, leading to insufficient supply of thermal power, the main force of electricity supply. This unbalanced supply-demand relationship has led to an ever-growing power gap.

About the Dual Control of Energy Consumption

In addition to the power shortage, the rigid requirement to meet the dual control targets for energy consumption is also an important "driver" of the dual restrictions.

The concept of dual control of energy consumption was first proposed in October 2015 at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC. Its full name is the action of implementing "dual control" of the total volume and intensity of energy consumption, which aims to set targets for controlling total energy consumption and energy intensity by province, autonomous region and municipality directly under the Central Government, and to supervise and assess local governments at all levels. Energy intensity here refers to energy consumption per unit of GDP.

In fact, the advancement of the dual control of energy consumption has been gradual and step by step.

In the 11th Five-Year Plan, reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP was made a binding indicator.

In the 12th Five-Year Plan, while reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP was made a binding indicator, the requirement to reasonably control total energy consumption was also put forward.

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the action of "dual control" of total energy consumption and intensity was implemented, with the explicit requirement that by 2020 energy consumption per unit of GDP be reduced by 15% compared with 2015, and total energy consumption be kept within 5 billion tonnes of standard coal.

In the 14th Five-Year Plan, it was further proposed to improve the "dual control" system for total energy consumption and intensity, with a focus on controlling fossil energy consumption, and to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP and carbon emissions in 2025 by 13.5% and 18% respectively compared with 2020. The State Council has broken down the national "dual control" targets to each region and made comprehensive arrangements for the "dual control" work.

From the perspective of the assessment mechanism, energy intensity has higher priority in the dual control of energy consumption. The core of dual control is to continuously improve energy use efficiency and constantly raise the quality and efficiency of development; in accordance with the principle of strictly controlling energy intensity, reasonably controlling total energy consumption and appropriately increasing management flexibility, reducing energy intensity is taken as a binding indicator for economic and social development, and total energy consumption as a guiding indicator for advancing the work.

On August 12 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Barometer of the Completion of Regional Dual Control Targets for Energy Consumption in the First Half of 2021", which shows that by mid-year fewer than half of the provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) had made generally smooth progress in reducing energy intensity. Nine provinces (autonomous regions) including Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi and Guangdong saw their energy intensity rise rather than fall in the first half of the year, which was a Level 1 warning (a very severe situation); 10 provinces (autonomous regions) failed to meet the progress requirement for reducing energy intensity in the first half of the year, which was a Level 2 warning (a relatively severe situation). The National Development and Reform Commission requires ensuring the completion of the annual dual control targets, especially the target for reducing energy intensity.

On this basis, regions with Level 1 and Level 2 warnings in the first half of the year face a more severe energy-saving situation in the second half. Under the pressure of policy targets, adopting dual restriction measures to ensure the completion of the annual dual control targets has become a reluctant choice.

About Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality

Are the dual restrictions and dual control short-term measures, or a trend toward normalization and long-term operation that enterprise operations will face?

On September 22 last year, China formally announced to the United Nations General Assembly that China will strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and work hard to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

A year later, on October 24 this year, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Fully, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Philosophy and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality". As the "1" in the "1+N" policy system, the Opinions is a guiding and programmatic document for the "dual carbon" goals, providing systematic planning and overall deployment for this major task of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

In its working principles, the Opinions clearly puts forward giving priority to conservation, placing energy and resource conservation first, implementing a comprehensive conservation strategy, continuously reducing energy and resource consumption and carbon emissions per unit of output, and improving input-output efficiency. This principle shows that energy is the main battlefield for achieving the "dual carbon" goals, and conserving energy is the primary way to achieve them.

From this it can be seen that, as the "dual carbon" goals advance, it is expected that enforcement of the dual control of energy consumption will become stronger in the future. Even if the dual restrictions have phased characteristics, the conditions for enterprises' energy use will also become tighter.

The Impact of the Dual Restrictions and Dual Control on the Industry

The dual restrictions and dual control have had a certain impact on the production and operation of printing enterprises.

First, it affects full-capacity production. Printing enterprises hit by power rationing and production curbs in various places face problems such as reduced output and delayed delivery to varying degrees.

Second, it increases electricity costs. During the urgent period when the power gap keeps widening, on October 12 the National Development and Reform Commission issued in a timely manner the "Notice on Further Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of Feed-in Tariffs for Coal-Fired Power Generation", making clear that from October 15, the feed-in tariff of all coal-fired power generation will be released in an orderly manner, and the floating range of market transaction prices for coal-fired power will be expanded to no more than 20% up or down in principle, while market transaction electricity prices for energy-intensive enterprises will not be subject to the 20% upward floating limit. After this round of electricity price reform started, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangxi and other places raised feed-in tariffs, and in some regions electricity prices rose to the ceiling. At present, some printing enterprises have reported that the new electricity prices are being implemented locally, increasing their electricity costs.

Third, it increases the cost of raw and auxiliary materials. In addition to electricity prices, the prices of raw materials such as paper have also ushered in a new round of increases. Since September, many papermaking giants have issued notices of shutdown and supply reduction on the grounds of power rationing and of responding to energy-saving and emission-reduction policies; recently, they have issued price increase letters one after another, pushing paper prices up again.

Fourth, corporate profits are under pressure. Pressure on corporate profits is a dilemma that printing enterprises have faced all year. Judging from the monthly operating conditions of enterprises above designated size disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics, in January-September this year, printing enterprises above designated size achieved operating revenue up 12.7% year on year, but total profits fell 0.6% year on year, with profit growth having dropped into negative territory. Due to a combination of reasons including power rationing, production curbs and another rise in paper prices, profit growth of enterprises above designated size may decline even faster in the following months.

At present, power companies in various places are stepping up production and working hard to resolve temporary difficulties. But for printing enterprises, planning ahead and figuring out how to survive and develop under the long-term background of dual control of energy consumption has become a strategic proposition they cannot but consider. Improving the overall utilization efficiency of equipment per unit of time concerns the choice of equipment investment; squeezing out capacity within limited time concerns the direction of lean improvement. High-quality development of enterprises is no longer a vague goal, but strength increased in the process of resolving one challenge after another.

From this perspective, the dual restrictions and dual control may well prove to be an important driving force, and we also hope that printing enterprises can turn crisis into opportunity and move ahead against the trend.

——This article is reprinted from China Packaging Network (pack.cn). Original link: http://news.pack.cn/show-378652.html