Индустрия упаковочной бумаги готова выйти из спада, поскольку «618» и другие торговые фестивали могут стать ключевой возможностью

As the "618" mid-year shopping festival approaches, the packaging-paper industry, which has been in the doldrums since the start of 2023, may be about to see the light.

However, entering June, the prices of containerboard and corrugated paper continued to fall, as if it were "the darkness before dawn". Data from Tonghuashun iFinD shows that as of June 5, the ex-factory price of domestic 140g corrugated paper was 3,395 yuan/ton, falling below the 3,400 yuan/ton mark, down 19.36% year on year and down 11.13% from 3,820 yuan/ton at the start of 2023.

In interviews, many experts and institutional analysts agreed that the "618" mid-year shopping festival will be an important opportunity for the packaging-paper industry to emerge from the doldrums. Tebon Securities believes that, catalyzed by online shopping events such as "618" and "Double 11", the consumption-recovery trend in the second half of this year is relatively clear, and as downstream stockpiling confidence picks up, packaging-paper prices may see an upward inflection as early as the end of the second quarter of this year.

The industry is at the bottom of the cycle

Since the start of 2023, containerboard and corrugated paper prices have continued to weaken, showing a sluggish trend. The main reason is still weak demand.

Lü Yanshuo, an industry analyst at Sublime China Information, told a Securities Daily reporter that in the first quarter of this year, although the operating rate rebounded rapidly after the Spring Festival and the supply of containerboard and corrugated paper increased, under the influence of a weak recovery in domestic demand and a relatively slow recovery in exports, downstream packaging plants operated weakly and were not active in purchasing base paper, causing market prices to keep falling. Data shows that by the end of March the price of corrugated paper had hit a five-year low.

At the same time, China's implementation of "zero tariffs" on many paper grades, including containerboard and corrugated paper, from January 1, 2023, became another main reason for the decline in packaging-paper prices. According to industry insiders, lower tariffs can give imported paper products a price advantage, so domestic packaging-paper enterprises, through actions such as "shutdown for maintenance", continued to lower containerboard and corrugated paper prices to narrow the price gap with imported paper products and thereby seize market share.

"The end of March was an inflection point; entering April, the industry saw a small rebound lasting nearly a month," Lü Yanshuo said. This was also regarded by most industry analysts as prices "stabilizing at the bottom".

Speaking about the impact of the "618" mid-year shopping festival, a person in charge at Sun Paper told a Securities Daily reporter that as early as April, the downstream paper-packaging industry had already begun actively stocking up for the "618" promotion. At that time, after a quarter of continuous decline, upstream paper mills were "calling for price hikes" to hold up prices, terminal demand was expected to recover driven by "618", and so market trading showed a favorable shift amid the supply-demand game, achieving the April industry rebound.

Regarding the renewed decline in containerboard and corrugated paper prices since May, especially recently, the Sun Paper executive said the situation this time is slightly different from the first quarter. Because with the recent decline in energy prices such as coal and electricity, the cost-side pressure on enterprises has eased. "Paper enterprises, especially large ones, have benefited markedly and no longer need to frequently resort to "shutdown for maintenance" as in the first quarter; now, while ensuring their operating rate, they continue to further seize market share through the strategy of lowering paper prices."

And starting from the "618" mid-year promotion, the further recovery of consumer demand will become an important factor in driving the rebound in demand for packaging paper and other industries.

Hong Yong, a think-tank expert of the China 50 Forum on Digital-Real Integration, told a Securities Daily reporter that the "618" mid-year shopping festival usually drives demand growth in the packaging-paper industry, and the consumption peak season in the second half of the year is also the traditional peak period for the packaging-paper industry.

"618 and the various festivals and activities in the second half of the year will drive diversified demand in the packaging-paper industry, especially in segments such as high-end packaging paper, personalized packaging paper and smart packaging paper," Hong Yong said.

The industry is accelerating its shakeout and consolidation

In the process of continuously falling packaging-paper prices, the packaging-paper industry is also accelerating its shakeout, showing a trend of concentration toward leading enterprises.

Recently, news has kept coming from southern China of small and medium-sized containerboard and corrugated paper enterprises going bankrupt. At the same time, leading paper enterprises including Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International have been actively expanding capacity.

According to Sublime China Information's forecast, containerboard and corrugated paper will add 8 million tons of new capacity from 2023 to 2025, with more new capacity added in 2023 — planning to add 4.9 million tons of containerboard capacity and 1.3 million tons of corrugated paper capacity — so the supply landscape will become even looser in the short term. And the new capacity is mostly concentrated in leading enterprises; according to Sublime China Information, from 2023 to 2024 Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International will expand capacity by 2.05 million tons and 1 million tons respectively.

Tebon Securities analyzed that, as environmental-protection policies tighten, the "waste-import ban" raises the industry threshold, and the zero-tariff policy on imported paper takes effect, leading domestic containerboard and corrugated paper enterprises are seizing the window of time to rapidly deploy pulp-and-paper capacity at home and abroad, enhancing their ability to control upstream resources and costs, and will further seize market share.

In this regard, Zhang Xinyuan, secretary-general of the Co-Found think tank, told a Securities Daily reporter that the increase in industry concentration is an inevitable outcome of the shakeout in industries such as packaging paper. "At present, competition in the packaging-paper industry is fierce and market share is fragmented, but some leading enterprises have already begun to raise industry concentration through strengthening M&A, resource integration and other means, further strengthening their own competitive advantages and market share," Zhang Xinyuan said, adding that in the future, as market competition intensifies and the industry shakeout accelerates, industry concentration is expected to rise further and become more concentrated, and the competitive advantages of leading enterprises will be further consolidated and strengthened.

However, in the view of the aforementioned Sun Paper executive, affected by factors such as leading enterprises' placement radius and freight costs, small and medium-sized paper enterprises will still maintain a certain space to survive.

Hong Tao, a professor at Beijing Technology and Business University, told reporters that in 2025 China's "plastics ban" will be fully implemented and, combined with the rapid revitalization of national consumption in 2023, this will promote the recombination of China's packaging-paper industry. "Leading enterprises will play an increasingly large role, and small and medium-sized packaging-paper enterprises will also open up market space for distinctive development," Hong Tao said.

——This article is reprinted from China Packaging Network (pack.cn), original link: http://news.pack.cn/show-379359.html