Цены на гофрированную бумагу снижаются на фоне волатильности в январе–августе 2024 года по мере ослабления влияния импорта

From January to August 2024, the corrugated paper market fluctuated downward, mainly affected by the bearish influence of the supply-demand imbalance and the decline on the cost side. Against the backdrop of relatively slow recovery in domestic demand and falling paper prices, enthusiasm for corrugated paper imports decreased, monthly import volumes gradually returned to the average level of the past five years, and the impact on the domestic market tended to ease.

Imports are a component of the total supply of the corrugated paper market and are in competition with domestic supply. Since the tariff policy was adjusted in 2023, the cost of corrugated paper imports has decreased, the import advantage has expanded, and the impact on the domestic corrugated paper market has been pronounced. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, corrugated paper imports in 2023 totaled 3.59 million tonnes, an increase of 47.74% year on year. Entering 2024, the "zero tariff" policy continued, and the import advantage for corrugated paper remained, but import volumes showed a downward trend, with cumulative corrugated paper imports of 1.7745 million tonnes from January to July, down 11.82% year on year. The decline in corrugated paper imports was mainly attributed to insufficient import demand, falling domestic paper prices and factors related to the international situation.

Sluggish domestic market, limited import demand

In 2024, the overall demand recovery in the domestic corrugated paper market was limited. According to monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information, domestic corrugated paper consumption from January to July 2024 increased by 2.13% year on year, indicating relatively slow growth in domestic demand. The pull of festivals such as the Spring Festival, May Day and e-commerce festivals on consumption weakened somewhat. According to market feedback, compared with previous years, terminal packaging material stocking demand did not increase noticeably, orders at packaging plants fell short of expectations and order continuity declined; most industry players stocked only for immediate needs and mainly took a cautious wait-and-see stance on the market outlook. Since the shipping schedule for imported paper is generally 45-60 days, timeliness of delivery is relatively lacking compared with domestic spot goods. In a market environment of long-term weak demand, industry players find it hard to be optimistic about the market, import paper traders stock cautiously, and import demand from downstream and terminal customers has decreased.

On the other hand, in terms of the registered locations of consignors and consignees for corrugated paper imports, import demand is generally concentrated in the eastern coastal regions such as Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and Shanghai, which are both the main distribution areas for imported paper traders and the main consumption areas for corrugated paper, and are more sensitive to changes in market demand. From January to July, the total corrugated paper imports of the above provinces decreased by 8.80% year on year, which also reflects a year-on-year decline in domestic import demand.

Falling domestic paper prices combined with rising import costs narrow the import arbitrage window

On the domestic base paper side, the supply-demand imbalance in the corrugated paper market was prominent in 2024 and paper prices fell. From January to August, new capacity in the corrugated paper market approached 1.2 million tonnes, and because market shutdowns were concentrated at small and medium-sized units, total output increased year on year, adding pressure on the supply side. Demand recovery was slow and effective terminal demand failed to keep pace, so the market continued to be oversupplied. In addition, during the year upstream raw material

prices fell more often than they rose, weakening cost-side support for corrugated paper. Under the bearish influence of supply, demand and costs, paper mills adjusted prices frequently and corrugated paper prices showed a volatile downward trend. As shown in Figure 2, as of August 22, the average market price of China AA-grade 120g corrugated paper was 2,609 yuan/tonne, down 4.68% year on year and down 10.80% from the end of 2023.

On the imported paper side, import costs increased somewhat due to international factors. On the one hand, the international situation was unstable in 2024, shipping costs rose noticeably and transit times lengthened, further reducing the stability of international freight; sea and rail transport, as the main modes of corrugated paper imports, were greatly affected. Against this backdrop, freight rates for imported paper rose, some offers also trended upward, the price advantage weakened to some extent, and this was bearish for corrugated paper imports. On the other hand, exchange rates fluctuated frequently during the year, which also affected corrugated paper imports.

The decline in domestic paper prices and the increase in import costs narrowed the arbitrage window for corrugated paper imports and dampened import enthusiasm, and from January to July corrugated paper imports generally trended downward. Taking shipping schedules into account, most imported paper in January came from orders placed at the end of 2023, while March was largely supported by the continuation of the "zero tariff" policy and Spring Festival stocking orders, with import volumes exceeding the five-year high to reach 0.3622 million tonnes. Afterwards, as domestic paper prices fell markedly, import volumes decreased month by month and gradually returned to the average level of the past five years.

In summary, in 2024 the favorable effect of the corrugated paper import tariff policy on import volumes weakened. Under the bearish influence of slow domestic demand recovery, falling paper prices and international factors, enthusiasm for corrugated paper imports was dampened. Domestic demand is expected to improve in the third and fourth quarters, but competition in the domestic market is intense and, combined with international bearish factors that will be difficult to digest in the short term, corrugated paper imports from August to December are expected to be close to the average level of the past five years, with second-half imports slightly higher than first-half imports and full-year imports down year on year compared with 2023.

——This article is reprinted from China Packaging Network (pack.cn). Original link: http://news.pack.cn/show-379637.html